Scope and Objectives
The Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau (OJK) initiated a Preliminary Assessment (PA) on 2 October 2020 due to video footage aired in September 2020 by Monster Media Group Limited showing a hole in the starboard side of the wreck of MV ESTONIA. OJK requested assistance from its counterparts in Sweden (SHK) and Finland (SIAF) to conduct the PA.
“It is important to carry out this inquiry to offer the peace of mind to those saved from MV ESTONIA and to those who lost their loved ones in this catastrophe. I sincerely thank our team members in Estonia, Finland, and Sweden alongside other contributors to the Preliminary Assessment,” says Rene Arikas, the Director of OJK.
The aim of the PA is to determine the origin of the damage on the starboard side and to assess if there is a reason to revisit the conclusions of the 1997 Joint Accident Investigation Commission (JAIC) report on the sinking of MV ESTONIA. The PA will also ascertain whether the safety investigation of the sinking of MV ESTONIA should be re-opened.
OJK leads the PA as Estonia is the flag state. SHK participates due to the many casualties from Sweden. SIAF helps to facilitate on-site surveys as the accident took place in Finnish waters. SIAF has not participated in underwater surveys that are conducted by its Estonian and Swedish counterparts.
Information on the sinking of MV ESTONIA, the subsequent investigation, and the Preliminary Assessment has been compiled on the following website: https://estonia1994.ee/en .
Prerequisites for On-Site Activities
On 23 February 1995, the Governments of Estonia, Finland, and Sweden agreed to protect MV ESTONIA as a grave site, and Finland and Sweden implemented legislative bans against underwater operations in the vicinity of the wreck. To allow surveys to take place for the PA, SHK and SIAF requested amendments to the respective national legislations which were approved in June 2021. The amended national legislations paved the way to conduct marine surveys with the most modern technology.
“The photogrammetry and the digital 3D model offers a unique possibility to analyse the state of the wreck and its damage. It is also a way to publish the results of the survey in a transparent way and it shall be made available to the public”, says Jonas Bäckstrand, the Deputy Director General of SHK.
The carrying out of the PA has taken longer than originally anticipated, for which reason the present state of the assessment has been summarised in the Intermediate Report. The report details the surveys conducted thus far along with other studies that have been brought to a close. On-going tasks, such as the interview process, are mentioned alongside potential future surveys.
Preliminary Conclusions
The PA concludes by drawing preliminary conclusions.
Primarily, the poor condition of the wreck is highlighted. Also, the location of the deformation as shown in the 2020 videos matches the location of outcropping bedrock. Two conclusions are made, based on evidence gathered so far, which state that there is no indication of a collision with a vessel or a floating object nor is there any indication of an explosion in the bow area.
Lastly, an assessment conducted by SHK and OJK summarized facts from the 1997 JAIC report with regards to the seaworthiness of MV ESTONIA. This assessment is presented in an appendix of the Intermediate Report, but the preliminary conclusions of this study are that MV ESTONIA was not seaworthy. This is based on two facts: 1) flaws existed in the construction of the visor which could have been discovered had an inspection of the bow parts been performed, and 2) as the location of the bow ramp as the upper extension of the collision bulkhead was based on a practical decision for an exemption from regulations, the condition for such an exemption should have been recorded in certificates, but was not. If the latter of these had been noted in the relevant certificate, the vessel would not have been trading the Tallinn–Stockholm route.
Nothing that would significantly alter the technical findings and the reasoning of how the accident occurred as presented in the 1997 JAIC report has been found thus far.
Way Ahead
The PA is now entering the analysis phase where the results from all studies will be combined to present a comprehensive examination of all known information. However, some future surveys are still being planned—amongst these are a ferromagnetic survey, biological sample acquisition, bow ramp recovery, and a survey of the cargo deck—which will also be integrated into the final analysis alongside a planned model of the path of MV ESTONIA during the sinking. The interviews with survivors and related persons are also yet to be finished.
The Preliminary Assessment is estimated to be concluded in 2024 which coincides with the time frame of the Finnish national amendment to the grave peace legislation.
